Missouri Black Bear Population
Updated for 2022
Here is what cracks me up that people believe both hunters, non-hunters and Anti Hunters think that the 2019 Estimated Missouri Black Bear Population of 540 to 840 are actually numbers per MDC.
If you have conservative population numbers and base quota off of conservative population, you end up with conservative quota's - Then you make extreme restrictive hunting regulation you end up with even lower harvest numbers. It's really that simple.
But first learn your the history of the Black Bear Population in this region, then look at the Missouri Black Bear Population Numbers and how conservative they really are.
Join the FACEBOOK GROUP - Missouri Black Bears this is a group for like-minded individuals of Missouri that want to show growing Missouri Black Bear Population.
The Missouri Black Bear is a hunting/conservation group designed to build a real resource for the serious hunters of Missouri. The Missouri Black Bear is the icon species for conservation.
Remember that this is a family orientated group, so please keep the post clean and respectful for the whole age group. Members from anywhere are welcome but the focus will be on Missouri.
Updated Missouri Black Bear Maps - Now able to change layers
(aka year range)
2019
2014 thru 2018
2009 thru 2013
2004 thru 2008
https://nature.mdc.mo.gov/discover-nature/report-wildlife-sightings/bear-reports
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Missouri Department of Conservation - Reply
ONE BLACK BEAR POPULATION - SPANNING THREE STATES that is the reality
FY 2021 Missouri will have around. 1025 bears.
As always people have missed a critical historical Missouri Black Bear information to the public.
People do not understand Bear don’t care about imaginary lines on a map.
You are seeing people "Feel" that Missouri bear population so few, 850 and you never even mention the 6,500 bears to the south Arkansas Bear population, that is a line on map and the Arkansas population has expanded.
While we may have had few Native bears and our population is growing on its own, we are still getting the expansion from Arkansas. You can't separate the history or the population, they are forever connected.
Even the DNA trait that 25% of the bears in Arkansas is Phase color which is what the restocking of bears was also.
1950’s before restocking of Bears into Arkansas the population was estimated at 30
They restocked 250 bears into Arkansas in 1950’s.
It went from 280 bears and in 1990 just 40 years their where over 2000 bears
2010 the current population is over 4,000 to 5,000 bears.
That is with hunting for around the last 28 years and taking currently around 300 to 400 bears a year.
The Arkansas Game and Fish Commission (AGFC) responds to nearly 200 bear nuisance calls a year.
There are about 6,000 bears in the state 2019, according the Arkansas Game and Fish Commission.
Bear season open in 1980. 2020 Zone 1 which borders Missouri increase from 350 to 500 limit of bear taken.
But don't let facts get in the way of Missouri only having a few bears. LOL
Arkansas Black Bear Population is and always will be tied to Missouri Black Bear Population
Two Bears collared in Missouri have been killed legally in Arkansas
Arkansas bear population 6000 in 2019 and Zone 1 bear population is directly tied to Missouri Bear Population.
Arkansas Game and Fish Commission - May 22, 2020 Increasing the bear quota in Bear Zone 1 (Ozarks) from 340 to 500 bears
Oklahoma Black Bear History – 2009 to 2019 Hunting Season
One Black Bear Population spanning Multiple States
Black Bear Population continues to grow.
What Missouri may look like for a Bear Hunting Season.
2000 - As a starting point the Oklahoma put the population at 450 Black Bears, admittedly a conservatively low number
2008 the population in southeast Oklahoma was estimated at around 1,600 Black Bears
In the late 1900s, however, black bears began making a comeback in Oklahoma after the successful reintroduction of black bears in the Ouachita and Ozark Mountains of Arkansas. That initial relocation of about 250 bears from northern Minnesota and Manitoba, Canada, turned into thousands of bears in the mountains of Arkansas, which then expanded into southwest Missouri and eastern Oklahoma.
2009 – Oklahoma 1st Bear Season – 19 Bear Harvested on a Limit of 20 in one Month of Hunting.
More than 100 bears in the four-county area open to the hunt had been tagged for research or as nuisance bears, and none of them turned up among the 19 killed.
The limit of 20 was set as a conservative harvest, 10 percent, of the most conservative population estimate, 200. With well over 100 marked bears out there, the Oklahoma Biologist say there is a large amount of bears if we harvest almost 20 and don't get a single one," "The upper end of that population estimate was 700. Oklahoma Biologist, there's a lot more than that."
2010 – 32 Black Bears Harvested.
2011 – 31 Black Bears Harvested.
2012 – 550 Tags Issued – 66 Black Bears Harvested – One weighing in at 675 lbs.
2013 – Estimated Bear Population 2,000 - 28 Bears Black Bears Harvested – High Mast Crop is the reason for low harvest of bears.
2014 – Estimated Bear Population 2,000 – 52 Black Bears Harvested
2015 – 52 Black Bears Harvested
2016 – 57 Black Bears Harvested
2017 – 40 Black Bear Harvested
2018 – 85 Black Bears Harvested – Setting Record for Oklahoma
2019 Southeastern Oklahoma) 2019 – Population of 2,000 plus Black Bears – 61 Black Bear Harvested - One weighing in at 550 lbs.
Currently the counties have expanded on Bear Hunting in Oklahoma and Population Estimates are around 2,500 bears.
Estimating Bear Population in Missouri in 2018
1950’s before restocking of Bears into Arkansas the population was estimated at 30.
They restocked 250 bears into Arkansas in 1950’s.
It went from 280 bears and in 1990 just 40 years their where over 2000 bears
2010 the current population is over 4,000 to 5,000 bears.
That’s with hunting for around the last 28 years and taking currently around 300 to 400 bears a year.
So, in 2012 Missouri had estimated 350 bears in Missouri if only 25 percent where females and only half of those cubs survived for each of the past 6 years that would mean the population would be closer to 614 bears in 2018 and since the morality rate is only 25 to 35 percent for black bear cubs that number would even be higher.
Even if we take the Arkansas historical numbers for first 40 years the number of bears in Missouri would be around 608 bears in 2018 and that’s with hunting in the last 10 years of the 40 years in Arkansas.
2015 Arkansas Black Bear
Arkansas and Missouri Black Bear Population is actually just one Population that also expands into Oklahoma
But for Missouri this will help explain why Missouri Zone 1 is the Hot Zone for bears
Map from 2015
2019 Arkansas Black Bear
The Arkansas Game and Fish Commission (AGFC) responds to nearly 200 bear nuisance calls a year.
There are about 6,000 bears in the state, according the the Arkansas Game and Fish Commission.
Bear season open in 1980.
Here some Great Information about Missouri Black Bear Cubs.
Missouri Department of Conservation does not specifically calculate survival rates between 1st litters and subsequent litters because in many instances we have no way to confirm whether a litter is a 1st litter.
I believe when we chatted in West Plains we discussed that topic anecdotally. For the purposes of our population study we look at cub survival rates from females of all ages and asses the range in cub survival rates. We then assess reproduction probability of females by age class.
Based on data collected from 2010-2019:
Male cub survival rates range from 0.6-0.8
Female cub survival rates range from 0.8-0.99
Mean litter size is 1.96 (We generally see litters between 1-3 cubs; in 2020 we documented a litter of 4)
Missouri Black Bear Travel
For those that say bears do not travel. That is false.
The Missouri Black Bear Population is part of 10,000 Black Bear population spanning 3 states. Arkansas, Missouri and Oklahoma.
The data shows bears moving back and forth across state lines.
When population is not a dense they are very selective on habitat they want to live in that has the best food, water and cover.
The GPS blue line maps of bears in Missouri show bears traveling 200 miles in Summer here in Missouri and over 400 miles in 3 years till it finally decided on a home.
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Black bear coaxed out of Gasconade County town - June 19, 2020
https://krcgtv.com/news/local/can-you-bear-leave-it-black-bear-coaxed-out-of-gasconade-county-town
Roark Valley Rd - Taney County - We can confirm a small male black bear was hit and killed - June 11, 2020
http://www.northamericanwildlifeandhabitat.com/missouri-black-bear.html
Another Missouri Black Bear hit by vehicle and killed near Stanton on 1-44 - June 9, 2020
http://www.northamericanwildlifeandhabitat.com/missouri-black-bear.html
Bear, vehicle collision on Highway 63 near Vichy - December 11, 2019
https://www.mariescountyadvocate.com/stories/bear-vehicle-collision-on-highway-63-near-vichy,29593
Conservation officials euthanize bear captured in Joplin - July 12, 2019
https://www.joplinglobe.com/news/conservation-officials-euthanize-bear-captured-in-joplin/article_e4eda58a-a4c2-11e9-8856-cfc06ba815bc.html
Black Bear pays a visit to Rolla’s Lions Club Park - June 3, 2019
https://www.therolladailynews.com/news/20190603/black-bear-pays-visit-to-rollas-lions-club-park
WATCH: Bear removed from Eureka parish Officials removed the bear - May 29, 2019
https://www.ksdk.com/article/news/weird/bear-gets-stuck-inside-eureka-church/63-1448d7a8-ee41-4608-bd59-ecc38ac12005
Black Bear Spotted In Crane, Hurley Area - May 23, 2019
https://www.ccscrnews.com/black-bear-spotted-in-crane-hurley-area.html
400-pound black bear found dead on Current River - June 11, 2018
https://www.kfvs12.com/story/38396218/400-pound-black-bear-found-dead-on-current-river/
6 black bears killed on Missouri roads so far this year - July 18, 2018
https://fox2now.com/news/6-black-bears-killed-on-missouri-roads-so-far-this-year/
Bear struck and killed on U.S. 67 - July 16, 2018
https://dailyjournalonline.com/news/local/bear-struck-and-killed-on-u-s-67/article_50a10d41-ad26-5872-bbc1-73e8ebedd9de.html
Driver hits, kills black bear in Madison County - July 6, 2018
https://www.ksdk.com/article/news/local/driver-hits-kills-black-bear-in-madison-county/63-574405612
Bear euthanized after being hit by car near Cuba, Mo. - June 13, 2018
https://www.kmov.com/news/bear-euthanized-after-being-hit-by-car-near-cuba-mo/article_1eb5fa1c-402c-5c41-a343-113e32a40f54.html
Bear spotted in Festus neighborhood - June 7, 2018
https://www.kmov.com/news/bear-spotted-in-festus-neighborhood/video_cf0df6ce-29cb-545a-99e3-a63a9164acd8.html
Black bear hit by vehicle in Mountain Grove - May 18, 2018
https://www.ozarkradionews.com/local-news/black-bear-hit-by-vehicle-in-mountain-grove
Black Bear Hit near Stanton on 1-44 - May 29, 2018
https://www.news-leader.com/story/news/local/ozarks/now/2018/05/29/missouri-bear-vehicle-accident-science-experiment/651017002/
Large Black Bear Hit By A Car At Lake Of The Ozarks Is Put Down - October 19, 2017
https://www.lakeexpo.com/news/lake_news/large-black-bear-hit-by-a-car-at-lake-of-the-ozarks-is-put-down/article_e31f7f84-b505-11e7-b96a-776c63927dfa.html
Seymour woman's captures black bear in her backyard - July 19, 2016
https://www.ky3.com/content/news/WATCH-Black-bear-plays-in-back-yard-387547161.html
Black bear sighting at Back yard Bird Feeder - July 12, 2016
https://buffaloreflex.com/news/black-bear-sighting/article_0be30744-487c-11e6-b051-5f4c94cfbbf7.html?mode=image&photo=0
Black Bear Hit by Truck in Howell County - June 28, 2016
https://www.ozarksfirst.com/local-news/video-black-bear-hit-by-truck-in-howell-county/
Black bears spotted in Franklin County; conservation officials offer warning - June 8, 2016
https://www.kmov.com/news/black-bears-spotted-in-franklin-county-conservation-officials-offer-warning/article_40b038ac-e1d0-58f5-8e58-4e191f5124de.html
Black bear and cub spotted along southeast MO highway - June 8, 2016
https://www.kfvs12.com/story/32171941/caught-on-camera-black-bear-and-cub-spotted-along-southeast-mo-highway/
Black Bear travels 400 miles to a Cape Girardeau County family's driveway- June 7, 2016
https://www.kfvs12.com/story/32159174/black-bear-travels-400-miles-to-a-cape-girardeau-county-familys-driveway/
Black bear hit and killed in Jackson, Mo. - June 5, 2016
https://www.kfvs12.com/story/4991555/black-bear-hit-and-killed-in-jackson/
Black bear hot spot reported near Rogersville subdivision - May 18, 2016
https://www.news-leader.com/story/news/local/ozarks/2016/05/18/black-bear-hot-spot-reported-near-rogersville-subdivision/84502244/
Bear on losing end of collision with car in Christian County - May 14, 2016
https://www.ky3.com/content/news/Bear-on-losing-end-of-collision-with-car-in-Christian-County-379546771.html
May 4, 2016
The evidence was visible off the side of Highway T in Christian County. A car had collided with an American Black Bear
House Springs man admits poaching black bear, says he did it after movie unnerved him - May 4, 2016
https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/crime-and-courts/house-springs-man-admits-poaching-black-bear-says-he-did-it-after-movie-unnerved-him/article_de373df2-db11-59a0-b9d0-df01c2337689.html
Bear wandered in Womans Home in Christian County Before it was Euthanized - July 22, 2015
www.ky3.com
Authorities unable to capture bear loose in Fulton - May 25, 2015
https://www.fultonsun.com/news/news/story/2015/may/25/multiple-police-agencies-fulton-fire-search-bear-f/540877/
Black bear shot and killed in Perryville - June 14, 2014
https://www.ksdk.com/article/news/local/black-bear-shot-and-killed-in-perryville/63-40670177
600-POUND BLACK BEAR HIT BY TRACTOR TRAILER NEAR THAYER - November 10, 2014
https://www.westplainsdailyquill.net/news/local/article_3dffd7fe-691f-11e4-b3ba-4f2227497228.html
Black bear hit, killed in Maries County - June 9, 2014
https://www.newstribune.com/news/news/story/2014/jun/10/black-bear-hit-killed-maries-county/547051/
Bollinger County Bear Sighting - May 28, 2008
https://www.semissourian.com/story/1506262.html
Black Bear Shot and Killed - May 18, 2005
https://www.kfvs12.com/story/3359026/black-bear-shot-and-killed/
March of 2014 Report
Distribution of American black bear occurrences and human–bear incidents in Missouri
American black bears (Ursus americanus) were nearly extirpated from Missouri (USA) by the early 1900s and began re-colonizing apparent suitable habitat in southern Missouri following reintroduction efforts in Arkansas (USA) during the 1960s.
We used anecdotal occurrence data from 1989 to 2010 and forest cover to describe broad patterns of black bear re-colonization, human–bear incidents, and bear mortality reports in Missouri.
Overall, 1,114 black bear occurrences (including 118 with dependent young) were reported, with 95% occurring within the Ozark Highlands ecological region. We created evidentiary standards to increase reliability of reports, resulting in exclusion of 21% of all occurrences and 13% of dependent young.
Human–bear incidents comprised 5% of total occurrences, with 86% involving bears eating anthropogenic foods.
We found support for a northward trend in latitudinal extent of total occurrences over time, but not for reported incidents. We found a positive correlation between the distribution of bear occurrences and incidents. Twenty bear mortalities were reported, with 60% caused by vehicle collisions. Black bear occurrences have been reported throughout most of Missouri’s forested areas, although most reports of reproduction occur in the southern and eastern Ozark Highlands. Though occurrence data are often suspect, the distribution of reliable reports supports our understanding of black bear ecology in Missouri and reveals basic, but important, large-scale patterns important for establishing management and research plans.
Missouri Black Bear Photos Only
Click Here
MISSOURI BLACK BEAR POPULATION - 2021
July 18, 2020
Here is what cracks me up that people believe both hunters, non-hunters and Anti Hunters think that the 2019 Estimated Missouri Black Bear Population of 540 to 840 are actually numbers.
They do not hire interns, still in college to go 1 bear, 2 bear, 3 bears, etc.
Just like they don’t go count 1.3 million deer, 500,000 Wild Turkeys or 250,000 Coyotes.
Any Wildlife Population Models I have seen are very conservative numbers. I have never seen Missouri Black Bear Population Models and mine are extremely simplistic.
Missouri Black Bear Crystal Ball
Using Missouri Department of Conservation Numbers 540 to 840 in 2019 Missouri Black Bear Population along with the 300 to 350 Missouri Black Bear Population in 2012.
Here are the Four - Missouri Black Bear Population Models as I see it.
Does not matter if you agree or not but, just examples.
1. MDC Model – Population of 829 Missouri Black Bears in the year 2021
This is the Arkansas Historical Model of 250 Bears in 1950 to 2000 Bears in 2010
2. Population of 780 Missouri Black Bears in the year 2021.
The Ultra Conservative Model – Which just show how Conservative the Agencies Models are.
3. Population of 831 Missouri Black Bears in the year 2021
The Real-World Model – It is still conservative but believe to be closer to the actual population in Missouri.
4. Population of 1,074 Missouri Black Bears in the Year 2021
Using all that information my bet that 30 Black Bear Limit will be issued for the entire state of Missouri in the 2021 Season.
Because of season timing and methods, I doubt that 30 Black Bear will ever be filled in 10 days in the State of Missouri.
The final model – I call the Overflow – Because it is documented Bears are moving 80, 100 to 200 miles in a years’ time in a natural black bear dispersal – With both Missouri and Oklahoma tagged research black bears being killed legally in Arkansas during hunting season at times I believe the population is spiking with overflow of bears in Arkansas of 6,500 Black Bears Population
5. So, at times Population of 2,043 Black Bears in the Year 2021 – Big But – I believe this is a fluctuation number that drops down considerably as they move back into Arkansas, but all do not leave.
So, I believe the numbers fall between option 4 & 5 somewhere but really my understanding not sure how many bears are going back and forth.
That is why people of Missouri are seeing so many bears now.
Arkansas 2020 Black Bear Harvest Map
Arkansas and Missouri Black Bear Population is actually just one Population that also expands into Oklahoma, now reports in Texas and Southern Illinois.
But for Missouri this will help explain why Missouri Zone 1 is the Hot Zone for bears
Map from 2020 Black Bear Harvest.
